Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Supply Chain / Value Chain Metrics - Getting Started (1)

In the years that I have been working with companies in identifying and implementing supply chain and value chain improvments, I have watched how strategies change based on the prevailing economic conditions. In good times, when companies are struggling to meet demand and respond to market growth, successful companies invest to improve their operations, improve their margins, and increase their revenue. In bad times, when facing recession and business slowdown, successful companies invest to improve their operations, reduce their costs, and protect their margins. The constant drive to improve performance does not change - what may change is priorities.

I was reminded, recently, that a change in market conditions may require a fresh look at your business. Whether you have years of experience as an executive, you are a new manager or analyst, or you are a consultant / technology provider, sometimes you need to start from scratch. Businesses have proven, for years, that an outside perspective (consultant, research firm, partner) may challenge internal assumptions and lead to dramatic business change.

I thought it may be useful to provide a description of how I have "gotten started" when I have looked at companies and organizations for the first time. (I will be writing this in several installments). I supsect that most of this will be a pretty basic roadmap and I apologize to the more experienced among you. For the IT and sales account managers, the roadmap is essentially equivalent to a basic method for requirements definition or "discovery."


The approach that I will be outlining is based on a top-down approach.

Step One - Collecting Business Information

Unless you are a very small business, the odds are you provide more than one product (good or service) to your customers. In the case of the mid-to large company, the chances are that you have multiple businesses which each have multiple products. The first thing I try to do is get a sense of the company / organization and how it performs in the marketplace.

At the most basic level, what I would like to have is a description of the company, what products it provides, who the customers are, what it is trying to do in the markeplace, who its competitors are, and how it is performing. Not much, is it?

In the last 10 years, the freely available and accessible information has exploded. I typically start with an internet search. Here is how I frequently start:

Visit the company's website. Normally the company will provide a description of its goods and services, press releases, and information they want the public to know. (Not surprisingly, it is not uncommon that even senior executives are not aware of everything that is posted on their website).

On the websites of publicly traded companies, there is frequently a link for investors or investors relations. The information that you can find at these sites varies widely but frequently you can find:



  • Annual Reports


  • Quarterly Reports


  • Other SEC (US Security and Exchange Commission) filings


  • Analyst Briefings


The first three items on the list form a basic starting list of information whether you are doing a value chain performance analysis or a financial analysis. The United States Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) has simplified finding much of this information since it is available through EDGAR (Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, and Retrieval of SEC filings).


A company's annual report contains two important financial statements: the balance sheet and the profit and loss statement. Additionally, the annual report typically provides management's view of the business, vision and broad plans for the future, assessment of the marketplace, and their identification of operational and financial risks.


For large businesses, the financial reports will usually identify major business segements and the markets in which they operate. Since this business segmentation helps in determining the scope of the value chain, it is important for the novice analyst to understand that how the business slices and dices its organization and rolls up financial reports may or may not reveal important details of the organization. (If you randomly select public companies and visit their websites or read their annual reports you will find that quite a bit of variation in how much detail they reveal about their organizations. Some of this is a result of trying to concisely report the general health of enormous organizations. Some, is simply a result of trying to safeguard competitiveness).


Check public business resources. There are countless resources for buying business intelligence. Before you spend your money, I would recommend starting with some free or virtually free resources.


I use all of these resources when I start - each for different reasons. This doesn't mean that there aren't more places to start your investigation. They may be (The Reuters site provides some of the most complete company overview / descriptions. The Businessweek site provides very good information on competitors and industries). Information access may very based on whether or not you subscribe to a periodical.


Businessweek


CNN Money (Fortune, Money)


Forbes


Reuters


Yahoo Finance


Subscription Services. When starting a value chain analysis for a medium or large company, it is frequently useful to see more detail regarding the organization of a company. Where are products manufactured, where are the warehouses, where is the sales organization, etc. That level of detail is very difficult to get from public sources. A relatively low-cost research option that I have used in the past is Hoover's, a research arm of Dun and Bradstreet. Hoover's has a "family tree" option that often provides substantially more information that is publicly available.


It is possible to purchase individual research reports for businesses. Obviously, due diligence is required to insure that you are buying information you can't get with a little of searching and the cost of the report can be in the hundreds or thousands of dollars.


Company Information. Whether you are an analyst, an executive, vendor/consultant, or an IT organization, once you have started working with a company it is useful to gather internal information (not typically publicly available) for initial reference. The information should include:



  • Organization Charts

  • Mission Statements

  • Strategic (Long-Term Plans) and Business Plans

This assemblage of information should provide a basis of understanding of the company's markets, product lines, geographies, customers, and basic performance.


This first "quick look" of a company should only require a few days. You may spend more time in subsequent phases of analysis or implementation in getting more detailed information, testing assumptions, and answering questions.


In a perfect world, benchmarking information would be available to support this part of the analysis. In my next entry, I will spend a little time discussing benchmarking and participation in benchmarking programs.



Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Business Process Model WarsUpdate - Supply Chain / Value Chain Models

The latest addition to my list of business process models and frameworks is SAP and SAP's business solution maps. For years, SAP has provided a library of business processes as a basis for imlementation. In SAP's Enterprise Service Workplace, SAP provides graphic and drill down "solution maps" that encompass the broad range of value chain activities. While the legacy of the solution maps clearly shows the evolution from a technologically based approach (which is not a bad thing for a technical solution) the industry, cross-industry, and solution maps should not be overlooked by the business executive or analyst who just starting out.

Process models are the "standards" or banners in the escalating battle for the hearts, minds, and dollars of analysts, technologists, consultants, business process engineers, program managers, and business leaders.



APQP - Advanced Product Quality Planning - Automotive Industry Action Group
CCOR - Customer Chain Operations Reference Model - Supply-Chain Council, Inc.
DCOR - Design Chain Operations Reference Model - Supply-Chain Council, Inc.
DFSS - Design for Six Sigma - (Multiple Models)
eTOM - Ehanced Telcom Operations Map - TM Forum
MSDF - Manufacturing System Design Framework - Lean Advancement Initiative
PCF - Process Classification Framework - APQC
SAP ES - SAP Enterprise Services Workplace
SCOR - Supply Chain Operations Reference Model - Supply-Chain Council, Inc.
SCMF - Supply Chain Management Framework - SCM-Institute
VRM - Value Reference Model - Value-Chain Group

Technical but related frameworks

FERA - Federated Enterprise Reference Architecture - CPDA
ITIL - Information Technology Infrastructure Library

Corrections, additions, and amplifications are welcome.

Monday, January 21, 2008

Business Process Model Wars Update

In the list, which follows the graphic, I have added eTOM, the enhanced Telcom Operations Map. Similar to the APQP history, eTOM was developed as an industry specific tool but the framework has obvious applications to other industries.



Process models are the "standards" or banners in the escalating battle for the hearts, minds, and dollars of analysts, technologists, consultants, business process engineers, program managers, and business leaders.









APQP - Advanced Product Quality Planning - Automotive Industry Action Group
CCOR - Customer Chain Operations Reference Model - Supply-Chain Council, Inc.
DCOR - Design Chain Operations Reference Model - Supply-Chain Council, Inc.
DFSS - Design for Six Sigma - (Multiple Models)

eTOM - Ehanced Telcom Operations Map - TM Forum
MSDF - Manufacturing System Design Framework - Lean Advancement Initiative
PCF - Process Classification Framework - APQC
SCOR - Supply Chain Operations Reference Model - Supply-Chain Council, Inc.
SCMF - Supply Chain Management Framework - SCM-Institute
VRM - Value Reference Model - Value-Chain Group

Technical but related frameworks

FERA - Federated Enterprise Reference Architecture - CPDA
ITIL - Information Technology Infrastructure Library

Corrections, additions, and amplifications are welcome.

Friday, January 18, 2008

Supply Chain and Value Chain Benchmark Reports and Studies Update

This is the latest revision of my supply chain and value chain benchmark report.

I have received comments that it was difficult to read the slideshow presentation I had previously included. I am re-posting the list as a spreadsheet using Google Docs. The sources of the surveys are links which are clickable and should open to their respective sites. I envision that future additions will add more benchmark reports, provide a short description for the surveys, and identify what part of the value chain / supply chain is included in the report.If you are aware of a benchmarking study or resource that should be included in this report please let me know.



Saturday, December 22, 2007

The ROI of Supply Chain / Value Chain Improvement - The Need for Multiple Measurements

Return on investment, ROI, has become a mantra for organizations when they evaluate, initiate, and manage projects to improve their value chain or supply chain performance. Consulting companies, technology providers, and system integrators sell their products and services with promises based on ROI calculations. While the promise of ROI is seductive, determining what the real return for a project can be extraordinarily difficult. Promised ROI is frequently never realized.


In many cases ROI is calculated when projects are evaluated, proposals are awarded, and budgets are agreed upon. In many (most?) cases, once the project is completed, actual ROI is not tracked. As a result, there is little accountability for results - at least among those not responsibile for the business. While it can be challenging to meet budgets and schedules for a business improvement project, it can be far more challenging to meet overly ambitious business plans that may not depend just on a successful project.

For the small business or the large practitioner, the ROI calculation is essentially the same.

Return on investment is calculated as (the benefit of the project) minus (the cost of the project) divided by the cost of the project. The vast majority of the time, project improvements in supply chain or value chain operations are sold on cost savings or cost avoidance. So, a project that saves $1000 and costs $500 to implement, has an ROI of 1000 - 500 /500 or 1.0 (100%). If the project doesn't realize its promise and saves only $600 the ROI is 600-500/500 or .2 (20%).

For the business owner or executive, using the calculated ROI appears to be easy. If the calculated ROI is negative, it means the project is going to cost more than its "worth." So, you do not approve projects with a negative ROI. If one project has an ROI of 20% and another has an ROI of 50% the second project is given a higher priority. It may be more difficult to make decisions if a project is strategic, or produces positive and negative results. It may be that deploying a direct to cosnumer distribution system eliminates substantial logistics costs but may also threaten revenue when distributors are no longer motivated to sell.

Using an ROI calculation becomes more difficult when you compare projects and outcomes that extend over multiple years. Comparing a short term project with large (one-time) savings with a project that will last 18 months and generates small benefits (or savings) for the next 10 years requires a bit more sophistication. To help address this issue, the ROI calculation can be expressed in Net Present Value or NPV. (NPV is included in Excel worksheet forumulas). The NPV forumula allows an executive or an analyst to compare projects with multiple year time frames. Investopedia has an excellent description of how to calculate the value of money when time is a factor.

The real issue in supply chain and value chain ROI calculations lies in the assumptions. Supply chain and value chain operations include multiple functions and effect multiple business and financial results. If cost reductions lead to a reduction (or appearance in the reduction) of customer service, the result can be lost sales. As a result, a cost savings project can meet all of its ROI objectives and, if revenue is not considered, can produce a real financial loss.

So, how do you reduce the risk of inaccurate or incomplete assumptions? While there is no guarantee that your business executive, business analyst, or project manager will predict the right outcome, there are steps that can be taken to insure they consider different perspectives. One way is require the review of a project using multiple measurement dimensions. While cost and cost savings are almost always considered it is important to consider: impact on product positioning, impact on service level performance (as expressed in meeting customer commitments or expectations, impact on time / velocity, impact on the ability to adapt to marketplace changes, and the impact on the effective use of assets. It may be difficult to trace some operational project results to specific contributions (positive or negative) in revenue, however, the analysis will frequently identify project objectives and risks that would otherwise go unnoticed.

Likewise, not recognizing and accounting for the risks in implementing and deploying a solution can produce painful business outcomes. A company that invests in automating and modernizing a warehouse or manufacturing line and calculates how much it will save in the next 5 years loses its "return" if market conditions or strategy force the an early closing of the facility.

Perhaps one of the most important steps an organization can take to ensure they use ROI effectively is to measure their business performance consistently - before, during, and upon the completion of projects. The proliferation of executive dashboards and business intelligence solutions may be a sign that more and more businesses are learning that monitoring the right metrics and managing the business based on the results provides a competitive edge.

Is this a short term technology fad? How does a business know what or how to measure?

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Supply Chain and Value Chain Benchmark Studies and Resources

This list of benchmarking resources is similar to my post on process models. It is intended to be a frequently updated entry that will identify resources for benchmarking specific to supply chains, value chains, and business operations. It is certainly not an exhaustive list.


Academic (Colleges and Universitites)


Center for Supply Chain Research (Smeal – Penn State)
Cranfield University (School of Management)
CAPS Research (with Arizona State University)
The Supply Chain and Logistics Institute (Georgia Tech)


Commercial Research


Aberdeen Group
AMR Benchmark Analytix Service
APQC
ARC Advisory Group
The Benchmarking Exchange
Icognitive Pte, Ltd.
Performance Measurement Group LLC
(PMG)
The MPI Group

Government

European Commission (Eurostat)
United States (US-STAT Department of Commerce)

Journals and Media


Industry Week

Please provide any additions or modification to complete the list. If possible, please provide a site name, a link, and a short description of the benchmarking. (The list is not intended to identify every benchmarking study - just those that are specific to business operations / improvement),

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Supply / Value Chain Measurement: Metrics and KPIs

Recently SAS sent me an invitation to download a great reprint of a Harvard Business Review article by Thomas Davenport, "Competing on Analytics." It was only coincidence that led me to Gary Cokins blog post "A Word to the Wise..." I suggest you read the article but to paraphrase it, he talks about the confusion and lack of consensus about performance management and recommends speaking about the results instead of the definition. I think he is right - but since in this blog, I will be talking about what to measure and how to measure, I thought it important to give my unscientific, working definitions.

Metrics – “standards of measurement.” - A metric uses numbers to describe a component of the business (for an physical object it would be length, width, height, weight, etc.) Examples of business metrics would be: the value of finished good inventory, order fulfillment cycle time, forecast accuracy, on time in full delivery, etc.

Key Performance Indicator (KPI) – a metric that has been chosen to be pivotal in understanding past, present or future business performance. It is usually a metric on which the business wants to focus attention. For the purchaser of an automobile, average miles per gallon might be a KPI since it might give some insight into the total cost of ownership. You could argue that there are a few common KPIs. Virtually every business, at the executive level, would consider Revenue, Cost of Goods Sold (COGS), Margin, and Profit to be KPIs. A Chief Financial Officer may consider Inventory Turns to be a KPI. The COO or Manufacturing executive might consider Yield to be a KPI. I don't think I have ever seen two companies or two executives in the same company compile the same list of KPIs.

Measurement – the value observed when applying a metric. For example, if the metric is Finished Goods Inventory Turns the measurement might be 10 (x per year) or 20.

Organizations frequently confuse the process of selecting a metric with the process of setting a goal for the metric (measurement objective). For example, in the last several years, organizations have been establishing metrics around the "perfect order." (The order is delivered on time and in full with zero defects in condition or documentation). When the companies initially adopt the metic there can be an organizational preconception that the goal should be 100% perfect orders. Except for the very small or very sophisticated supply / value chain, it can be extraordinarily expensive to achieve perfection. As a result, many companies choose the metric, perfect order, then set the target (e.g. 90%).

Related terms

Benchmark(ing) - I have seen two commonly used definitions. They are not necessarily interchangeable.

1) An exercise where best practice and/or results are exchanged between two companies. For example, it has been common for companies to "benchmark" Toyota and the Toyota production system. It may involve a site visit, tour of the facilities, etc. This type of benchmarking exercise is frequently conducted outside one's own industry. (It is frequently easier to do this type of benchmarking with companies you don't compete with). The benchmarking may focus on practice as opposed to comparing measured results.
2) An exercise where organizations compare their results based on survey information. The most valued of these surveys are based on performance metrics. The breadth, depth, and quality of the benchmarking programs vary widely. Benchmarking programs are operated by universities and colleges, trade and professional organizations, consulting firms, and government agencies.

Thoughts on metrics and measurements -

You cannot manage what you do not measure - (I think the origin is Deming but it has been so often repeated I am no longer sure of the source).

Not all measurements are equally important

Meaurement is expensive. Failing to measure may be more so.

Metrics are the most emotional issue in business.